Week Ahead: Dollar pain to extend into December?

• FXTM’s USDInd on track for worst week since August
• USDInd ↓ 8% YTD, weakened against all G10 WTD
• US data dump + geopolitics = volatility?
• Over past year US PCE triggered moves of ↑ 0.3% & ↓ 0.4%
• Technical levels: 100.50, 200-day SMA & 99.00

The week ahead is packed with top-tier US data that will most likely influence bets around the Fed cutting rates in December and beyond.

Important reports from major economies and geopolitical developments may trigger fresh opportunities across the board:

Sunday, 30th November

• OIL: OPEC and non-OPEC ministerial meeting

Monday, 1st December

• JPY: BoJ Governor Ueda Speech
• CNY: China RatingDog Manufacturing PMI (Nov)
• GBP: UK S&P Global manufacturing PMI (Nov)
• USD: ISM Manufacturing PMI (Nov); Manufacturing Employment (Nov)
• US Cyber Monday

Tuesday, 2nd December

• JPY: Japan Consumer Confidence (Nov)
• SPN35: Spain Unemployment Change (Nov)
• EUR: Eurozone Inflation Rate (Nov); Unemployment Rate (Oct)
• WTI: US API Crude Oil Stock Change (w/e Nov 28)
• The OECD releases its latest economic outlook

Wednesday, 3rd December

• AUD: Australia GDP Growth Rate (Q3)
• CNY: China RatingDog Services PMI (Nov)
• CHF: Swiss Inflation Rate (Nov)
• USDInd: ISM Services PMI (Nov); ADP Employment Change (Nov)
• WTI: EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change (w/e Nov 28)

Thursday, 4th December

• AUD: Australia Balance of Trade (Oct)
• CHF: Swiss Unemployment Rate (Nov)
• GBP: UK S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (Nov)
• EUR: Eurozone Retail Sales (Oct)
• USDInd: US Initial Jobless Claims (w/e Nov 29)

Friday, 5th December

• EUR: Germany Factory Orders (Oct)
• FRA40: France Balance of Trade (Oct)
• CAD: Canada Unemployment Rate (Nov)
• USDInd: US PCE Price Index (Sep); Michigan Consumer Sentiment (Dec); Personal Income and Personal Spending (Sep)

Our focus is on the dollar, which is heading toward its largest weekly drop since August.



The greenback has been pressured by mounting Fed cut bets and growing optimism over a possible Ukraine-Russia peace deal.

It has weakened against every single G10 currency this week.

Here are 3 reasons why USDInd could see more volatility:

US data dump: ISM, ADP, Industrial production, PCE

Fed officials have struck a dovish note and hinted at a possible rate cut in December.

This puts extra attention on the US data dump in the week ahead, featuring the ISMs, industrial production, initial jobless claims and Fed’s preferred inflation gauge.

Monday 1st December – ISM Manufacturing

• USDInd is forecasted to move 0.2% up or 0.2% down in a 6-hour window after the US ISM data.

Wednesday 3rd December – Industrial production, ISM Services, ADP

• USDInd is forecasted to move 0.3% up or 0.3% down in a 6-hour window after the industrial production data.

Thursday 4th December – Initial jobless claims

• USDInd is forecasted to move 0.4% up or 0.3% down in a 6-hour window after the US initial jobless data

Friday 5th December – US September PCE report

• USDInd is forecasted to move 0.2% up or 0.3% down in a 6-hour window after the PCE report.

Traders are currently pricing an 83% chance that the Fed cuts rates in December.

• A set of figures that support the case for the Fed cutting interest rates may weaken the dollar.
• While stronger-than-expected data may cool Fed cut bets, boosting the USD.

Ukraine-Russia peace talks

US and Ukrainian negotiators have created an updated peace framework and plan to continue talks over the coming days.

Trump’s special envoy Steve Witkoff is set to hold talks in Moscow next week as the US continues to push for a deal to end the war in Ukraine.

Growing hopes around a peace deal may lift global risk sentiment and support the euro which could be a double blow to the dollar.

It’s worth noting that the euro accounts for almost 60% of the USDInd weight, while appetite for the safe-haven dollar may slip as risk sentiment improves.

Note: Economic data from Europe including the latest CPI could add to the overall volatility on the USDInd.

• The USDInd could weaken if peace plan hopes lift global risk sentiment and the euro.
• Any complications in peace talks could support the dollar as risk-off sends investors back toward safe-haven destinations.

Technical forces

FXTM’s USDInd has breached the bullish channel on the daily charts with resistance below the 200-day SMA.

• Sustained weakness below the 200-day SMA, may send prices toward the 50-day SMA at 99.00 and the 100-day SMA.
• A move back above 100.00 could trigger an incline toward 100.50 and 101.00.

Note: FXTM’s USDInd measures how the dollar performs against a basket of six different G10 currencies, including the Euro, British Pound, Japanese Yen, and Canadian dollar.