Market optimism over a Ukraine-Russia peace deal, coupled with Fed cut bets stimulated appetite for risk. The positive mood spread beyond equities with Bitcoin pushing above $91,000 while safe-haven assets remained subdued.
In the United Kingdom, the Autumn Budget centered on tax increases to fund welfare and address rising living costs. US markets are closed today for the Thanksgiving holiday, but this does not impact the USD, which is the worst-performing G10 currency week-to-date.
Investors should be mindful of the Pound’s brief relief rally on Wednesday following the UK Autumn budget.
With the budget confirming tax hikes, UK growth may take a hit, resulting in lower interest rates in the United Kingdom. With traders forecasting a 90% chance of a BoE cut in December and a 50% chance of another cut by March 2026, Sterling may extend losses in 2026.
Looking at the charts, the GBPUSD could slip back into a range if prices close below 1.3200.
Financial markets are currently pricing in an 80% chance that the Fed will cut rates in December.
This is based on soft economic data and dovish messages by numerous Fed officials. Expectations around lower rates are likely to weaken the dollar while supporting US equities.
Looking at the charts, FXTM’s USDInd is trading below the 200-day SMA. A breakout/down could be on the horizon.
Bitcoin climbed above $90,000 for the first time in almost a week as risk sentiment improved.
Still, the “OG” crypto is down over 15% month-to-date and still in the negative for 2025. Should the market mood continue to improve, this may support Bitcoin, pushing prices back toward $100,000. Alternatively, weakness below $90,000 may open a path back toward $83,000.
After swinging within a wide range, gold could be gearing up for a breakout amid Fed cut bets. The precious metal is trending, drawing support from a weaker dollar and rising expectations around a rate cut in December.
However, easing geopolitical risk may cap upside gains as risk appetite improves.
Nevertheless, gold has the potential to punch higher if bulls can conquer the $4200 resistance level.
A move back below $4130 could signal a selloff toward $4100 and $4030.