Earnings Preview: Nvidia set to define AI sentiment?

• Earnings date: Q2 FY26 results due Wed, Aug 27 after markets close
• Financials (expected): EPS +47%, revenue near $45.6 billion
• Risks: Export curbs, H20 chip pact cloud outlook
• AI demand: Blackwell rollout & global DC spend in focus
• 1-Day Implied Move: +/- 5.93% (~$260 bln market-cap swing) 

Context & Stock Performance 

The world’s most valuable (by market cap) company is slated to release Q2 FY26 results on Wednesday after U.S. markets close.

U.S. listed shares of Nvidia are up ~30% year-to-date, with the stock trading close to record highs amid AI-driven demand.

Note: Nvidia is listed on the Nasdaq and commands a market valuation of roughly $4.39 trillion, making it the largest company in the world by market cap.

Investor sentiment remains firmly bullish after Nvidia guided for ~$45 billion in Q2 revenue, with analysts projecting a near 47% jump in earnings per share. Expectations are high that sustained AI infrastructure spending, particularly for its Blackwell GPUs, will continue to fuel growth.

But challenges persist. U.S. export restrictions on advanced AI chips to China could weigh on forward sales, with estimates suggesting a multi-billion dollar hit to quarterly revenues. 

Nvidia’s results will be closely watched for clues on how much of this drag can be offset by demand in the U.S. and other markets.

When Will Nvidia Report?

Nvidia will announce its Q2 FY26 earnings on Wednesday, 27 August 2025, after U.S. markets close. A webcast is scheduled for 2:00 PM PT.

Market Expectations

• Revenue Forecast: Analysts expect around $45.6 billion, in line with Nvidia’s $45 billion ±2% guidance.
• EPS Outlook: Earnings per share are projected to climb nearly 47% YoY.
• China Impact: Export restrictions, particularly on H20 chips, may shave several billion off quarterly revenue.

What to Watch?

• China Exposure & H20 Chips: Any update on sales restrictions and offsetting regional demand will be critical.
• AI Infrastructure Demand: Blackwell GPU deployment and global data center build-outs remain in focus.
• Forward Guidance: Markets want clarity on whether Nvidia can sustain current growth momentum into 2026.

Implied Move & Market Impact

• Implied Volatility: Options traders suggest a potential ~5.93% post-earnings swing, underscoring market sensitivity.
• Index Sensitivity: With a ~$4.39 trillion market cap and >7% weight in key U.S. benchmarks, Nvidia’s results could ripple across global equities.

Bullish vs Bearish Scenarios

BULLISH:

• Strong EPS/revenue beat, resilient AI demand beyond China.
• Clear guidance on Blackwell rollouts & H20 revenue contribution.
• Stock could reach new record high (>183.93), reinforcing global AI optimism.

BEARISH:

• Weak China outlook, supply chain or margin pressure.
• Guidance below expectations, hinting at AI capex cooling.

Shares could retreat toward/below $171, pressuring indices.