- US and Iran secure peace deal
- Oil benchmarks tumbled while gold surges as USD weakens
- G10 majors welcome a weaker dollar
- Central banks remain in key focus
Trump's 80th birthday came with a gift for global markets!
On Sunday, the US and Iran reached a peace deal to end the war and reopen the Strait of Hormuz, after more than 15 weeks of conflict.
Markets are poised to open the new week in risk-on mode with sharp gaps from Friday’s close already telling the story:
- Brent slipped than 3% toward $84 a barrel
- Nasdaq 100 futures up 1.3%, S&P 500 futures climb 0.8%
- European natural gas futures declined as much as 5.8%
- Gold gapped up almost $100 higher
- G10 majors welcomed a broadly weaker dollar
To be clear, the official signing is set for June 19 in Switzerland.
Iran's Deputy FM confirmed the agreement on state TV but said Tehran won't begin implementing it until then. So essentially, treat this as “agreed” not “done”.
Reality check: a signed deal doesn't flip a switch. Mines in the Strait need clearing, shut-in fields could take months to restart, and damaged energy infrastructure needs repairing.
Don't be surprised if oil stays elevated in the short to medium term even with peace on paper.
-----------------------------------------------------------
SpaceX: To infinity and beyond the hype?
SpaceX's first day on Nasdaq ended with shares up almost 20% with a market cap surpassing $2 trillion.
That's bigger than Tesla. Bigger than Meta. On day one.
Big IPOs like this tend to lift the whole market's mood, which is partly why tech stocks broadly had a good day too.
But here is the catch: SpaceX is still losing money, and those losses are growing.
Its IPO filing showed a $4.27bn loss in Q1 alone, up from $528m a year ago.
Most importantly - A big chunk of that $2 trillion price tag is a bet on Starship.
Why this matters beyond SpaceX
SpaceX isn't just a rocket company anymore.
It's now also an AI player, putting it in direct competition with Anthropic and OpenAI. Both are racing toward their own IPOs later this year, with combined valuations (alongside SpaceX) likely reaching nearly $4 trillion between the three of them.
That makes SpaceX's debut a preview: can public markets really stomach trillion-dollar price tags on companies that are still losing money today, on the promise of tomorrow?
If the answer is YES, expect OpenAI and Anthropic's listings to ride the wave.
If the answer is NO, then it won’t just be the investors who bought into Musk’s vision who’ll suffer.
The fallout will hit the broader stock market, as well as the beneficiaries of the AI boom.
This includes, chipmakers, construction companies, financial firms, the Trump administration…let that sink in.
Analyst forecast -
According to Blomberg consensus, 80% of analysts are bullish on SpaceX with the 12-month price target at $174.40.
Not much of a change from current prices, but this is still early days with only 5 analysts sharing their predictions thus far.